Concerns about a jet fuel shortage have intensified in 2026 as disruption to Middle Eastern oil flows has altered international refined-product trade. Jet fuel has been one of the petroleum products most exposed to the disruption because the Middle East is a major source of aviation fuel for international markets.
However, the current market requires an important distinction: jet fuel supply is tight and highly volatile in some markets, but that does not mean the world is experiencing a universal physical shortage.
As of September 2026, the European Commission says there is no immediate oil-supply problem in the European Union. Jet fuel demand is currently being met through increased European refinery production and alternative supplies from global markets, while commercial and emergency stocks remain sufficient. At the same time, the Commission warns that continued instability in the Middle East and normal autumn and winter demand patterns could tighten markets further.
For aviation-fuel buyers, the more important question is therefore not simply whether there is a “shortage.” It is whether the required Jet A-1 grade, volume, loading window, origin and delivery location can be secured on acceptable commercial terms.
The principal disruption has been the effect of the Middle East conflict on oil production, exports and shipping through key regional routes.
The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because large volumes of crude oil and refined products normally move through the region. The disruption removed a significant source of internationally traded aviation fuel and forced refiners, traders and airlines to adjust procurement strategies.
The International Energy Agency says the Middle East was the world’s largest source of aviation fuel for international markets in 2025. When normal flows through Hormuz were disrupted, Europe was among the markets most exposed because of its dependence on Middle Eastern jet-fuel imports.
The supply response has included higher refinery output in Europe, increased US aviation-fuel production and additional exports from West Africa.
The IEA reports that West African jet-fuel exports nearly doubled compared with the preceding three-month average, driven largely by increased production at Nigeria’s Dangote refinery.
This is an important feature of the current market: lost supply from one region does not necessarily produce an immediate global shortage. It can instead trigger a reconfiguration of international trade flows.
Not in the simple sense.
A global shortage would imply that available physical supply is insufficient to meet demand across the market. Current evidence is more nuanced.
The European Commission’s September 8 assessment states that EU jet-fuel demand is currently being met through higher domestic refinery production and alternative international supplies. It also says that commercial and emergency stocks remain sufficient.
The UK government has similarly stated that UK airlines were not experiencing a current jet-fuel shortage, noting that airlines generally purchase fuel in advance and that airports and suppliers maintain stocks.
The concern is therefore better described as supply tightness and elevated market risk.
That distinction matters to petroleum buyers.
A market can have sufficient aggregate fuel while a particular airport, terminal, region or delivery window experiences tighter availability because of:
For a physical buyer, regional availability is often more important than the global headline.
Europe has significant refining capacity, but it also depends on international petroleum-product trade to balance regional supply.
Earlier in the crisis, the European Commission identified jet fuel as the primary petroleum-product concern and noted that EU refineries cover approximately 70% of EU jet-fuel consumption, leaving the remainder dependent on imports.
The disruption therefore created two simultaneous requirements.
First, European refiners needed to increase aviation-fuel output.
Second, European buyers needed to find replacement imports from other producing regions.
The IEA reports that European jet-fuel refinery yields increased sharply as refiners responded to the disruption. US refiners also increased aviation-fuel production, while West African exports increased as Nigeria became a more important supplier to international markets.
This has reduced the immediate risk of physical shortages, but it has not removed the underlying vulnerability.
If alternative supply becomes unavailable, shipping costs increase substantially, refinery production falls or regional demand rises faster than expected, the balance can tighten quickly.
Nigeria is an important example of how the global jet-fuel trade is changing.
The IEA identifies increased West African aviation-fuel exports as part of the market response to the loss of Middle Eastern supply, with the increase driven largely by Nigeria’s Dangote refinery.
Dangote Refinery states that it produces Jet A-1 to Euro V standards and exports refined products to international markets. The refinery also has a deepwater jetty designed to support fuel exports to African, European and global markets.
This does not mean that every Nigerian Jet A-1 cargo is automatically available to every buyer.
Physical supply still depends on production schedules, commercial allocation, cargo timing, terminal operations, vessel availability, destination requirements and contractual arrangements.
But the development demonstrates an important structural change:
alternative refining hubs can become strategically important when traditional aviation-fuel supply routes are disrupted.
For buyers, this means procurement strategies may need to consider a wider range of origins rather than relying exclusively on traditional Middle Eastern supply.
Geopolitical disruption is only one part of the supply equation.
A refinery outage can affect jet-fuel availability even when the broader global market remains adequately supplied.
Sasol reported that its Natref refinery experienced an unplanned downstream-unit shutdown in August 2026 alongside a planned shutdown of another unit. The company said the event affected refinery production and supply and that measures were being taken to support more stable jet-fuel availability, including continued supply to customers at OR Tambo International Airport.
This illustrates why buyers should avoid treating “jet fuel shortage” as a single global condition.
A buyer should instead ask:
Which refinery is affected?
Which terminal normally supplies the market?
How much inventory is available?
Which alternative origins can replace the missing volume?
How quickly can replacement cargoes arrive?
These questions are much more useful for physical procurement than a general shortage headline.
Another issue that has emerged from the 2026 supply disruption is the distinction between Jet A and Jet A-1.
European aviation has traditionally relied heavily on Jet A-1. During the supply disruption, aviation stakeholders examined whether Jet A sourced from other markets could help bridge supply gaps.
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency issued guidance because Jet A and Jet A-1 have different fuel properties, including differences in maximum freezing point. EASA emphasized the need for appropriate operational procedures, fuel-handling controls and communication between aviation stakeholders when Jet A is introduced into environments traditionally supplied with Jet A-1.
For procurement purposes, this means a buyer should specify the required aviation-fuel grade rather than simply requesting “jet fuel.”
The specification is part of the requirement.
Jet fuel prices are influenced by more than the crude-oil price.
The economics of physical aviation-fuel procurement can be affected by:
The difference between crude oil and jet fuel is commonly described through the jet-fuel crack spread. IATA continues to identify jet-fuel crack risk as an important issue for airlines because fuel remains the industry’s largest operating expense.
This is why there is no single meaningful “Jet A-1 price” for every buyer.
A cargo loaded FOB at one trading hub can have a substantially different delivered economics from a cargo supplied CIF to another destination.
For procurement decisions, the relevant question is therefore not simply:
What is Jet A-1 selling for today?
It is:
What is the commercially relevant delivered cost for the required specification, quantity, origin, destination and delivery window?
Airlines have several tools for managing a volatile fuel market.
They can use forward procurement, fuel hedging, inventory management, alternative sourcing and operational efficiency.
But physical availability remains fundamental.
IATA has warned that the 2026 energy shock is placing significant pressure on airline economics, with fuel representing a very large share of airline operating costs.
For fuel buyers, the current environment increases the value of having alternative supply channels identified before an urgent requirement develops.
That does not necessarily mean buying immediately.
It means understanding:
A serious Jet A-1 procurement inquiry should contain enough information for the supply side to determine whether the requirement can realistically be evaluated.
At minimum, buyers should define:
Specify Jet A-1 and the applicable technical or aviation specification required for the transaction.
State the required quantity and unit, such as metric tonnes.
Identify the country and, where possible, the receiving airport, terminal or port.
State whether the requirement is FOB, CIF or another agreed delivery structure.
Indicate whether the requirement is spot, a specific month, monthly supply or a longer-term contract.
If a particular terminal, port or airport is required, provide it.
If the buyer needs tank storage before final delivery, that should be stated early because storage availability can materially affect the logistics chain.
A legitimate commercial inquiry should identify the purchasing organization and provide a usable business contact.
These details do not guarantee that supply will be available. They allow the requirement to be evaluated properly.
The difference is simple.
A reader searching:
“Why is jet fuel expensive?”
is conducting market research.
A reader searching:
“Jet A-1 shortage Europe”
may be investigating a supply risk.
A reader asking:
“Where can I source 20,000 MT of Jet A-1 CIF to [destination] for October loading?”
has moved into procurement.
That distinction is important because the commercial response should change with the buyer’s intent.
If your organization has an actual Jet A-1 requirement, the useful information is no longer simply the latest shortage headline. The important information becomes the product, specification, quantity, destination, delivery basis and timeframe.
Global Petroleum Advisors monitors petroleum supply and procurement opportunities across international markets.
Organizations evaluating Jet A-1 supply can submit their requirement with the key commercial details, including quantity, destination, delivery basis and required timeframe.
This allows the inquiry to be evaluated as a specific procurement requirement rather than a general request for fuel prices.
Request Jet A-1 Availability
The current disruption demonstrates that jet-fuel availability is determined by an interconnected international system.
A refinery outage can reduce local production.
A geopolitical event can interrupt exports.
A shipping disruption can delay replacement cargoes.
A change in refinery economics can alter product yields.
A surge in seasonal aviation demand can tighten inventories.
And a new export hub can partially replace supply lost elsewhere.
The market therefore does not need to experience a universal physical shortage for buyers to face a difficult procurement environment.
The more useful way to monitor the market is to track refinery output, inventories, imports, exports, shipping routes, terminal availability, regional demand and alternative supply origins together.
For buyers, the objective is not simply to find the lowest advertised price.
It is to determine whether the required Jet A-1 can be supplied in the required specification, quantity, location and timeframe under commercially workable terms.
That is the difference between following a jet-fuel shortage headline and actually managing aviation-fuel procurement risk.
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