Oil and Gas Procurement: How Buyers Source Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

A Jet A-1 supply shortage rarely develops from a single event. More often, regional supply becomes constrained when refinery output falls, imports cannot arrive quickly enough, storage inventories are drawn down, or shipping and terminal limitations delay replacement cargoes.

This distinction matters because a market can have sufficient jet fuel in aggregate while a particular country, airport or trading hub experiences tight availability.

The current 2026 market illustrates this clearly. Disruptions to Middle Eastern production and exports reduced a major source of internationally traded aviation fuel, while refiners in Europe, the United States and West Africa increased output and alternative supply flows developed. The result has been a market that can substitute lost volumes, but remains vulnerable to further disruptions.

For a buyer, the important question is therefore not simply whether there is a global jet fuel shortage.

The more useful question is:

Where in the supply chain is flexibility being lost, and can replacement Jet A-1 reach the required destination within the required timeframe?

How a Jet A-1 Supply Shortage Develops?

A Jet A-1 supply shortage generally develops when available supply falls below the amount required by a particular market, location or delivery window.

That can happen because of:

• lower refinery output;
• refinery maintenance or unplanned outages;
• reduced exports from producing regions;
• higher domestic demand in an exporting country;
• shipping disruption;
• port or terminal constraints;
• pipeline limitations;
• insufficient storage;
• inventory drawdowns;
• quality or specification restrictions;
• unexpected demand increases; or
• several of these factors occurring simultaneously.

The important point is that physical availability is location-specific.

A cargo sitting in a storage terminal thousands of kilometres away does not solve an immediate shortage at an airport unless it can be transported, handled, certified and delivered in time.

This is why the phrase jet fuel shortage can describe several different market conditions.

A global supply deficit is one possibility.

A regional supply imbalance is another.

A temporary logistics constraint is another.

And an airport can experience a local availability problem even when international markets remain adequately supplied.

Refinery Output and Jet A-1 Supply Shortages

Jet A-1 moves through a chain of physical assets before it reaches an aircraft.

A simplified supply chain is:

Crude oil → refinery → Jet A-1 production → refinery storage → export terminal → vessel or pipeline → receiving terminal → storage → airport fuel system → aircraft

Not every market uses exactly the same infrastructure.

Jet fuel can move by:

• pipeline;
• ocean-going tanker;
• barge;
• rail;
• road tanker; or
• combinations of these modes.

The longer and more complex the supply chain, the more points exist where capacity can become constrained.

That is why supply resilience depends on more than refinery capacity.

A refinery may have sufficient production capability, but if export capacity is unavailable, vessels are delayed, receiving terminals are full, or airport storage is inadequate, the product may still fail to reach the end market when required.

The supply chain therefore has to be evaluated as a connected system rather than as a single refinery-to-airport transaction.

How refinery output affects Jet A-1 availability

Refineries are the first major supply-side control point.

Crude oil entering a refinery does not become Jet A-1 automatically. Refiners allocate crude through different processing units and adjust product yields according to crude characteristics, refinery configuration, economics, specifications and market demand.

When refinery throughput falls, the total pool of refined products can shrink.

Jet fuel production can also be affected by refinery maintenance, operational problems, feedstock constraints or changes in product economics.

The effect can be especially significant when several refineries are constrained at the same time.

The 2026 market demonstrates this relationship. The IEA reported that global refinery crude throughput remained significantly below the previous year’s level during the disruption, while product markets remained tighter than crude markets. Jet-fuel exports from several major supplying regions also fell materially.

A refinery does not therefore need to shut completely for aviation-fuel availability to tighten.

A reduction in throughput, a change in product yield or a loss of export capacity can all reduce the amount of Jet A-1 reaching international markets.

Why refinery maintenance matters

Planned maintenance is a normal part of refinery operations.

However, maintenance becomes a supply concern when:

1. a major refinery is offline;
2. several refineries enter maintenance simultaneously;
3. an unplanned outage occurs during planned maintenance;
4. replacement imports are difficult to secure; or
5. inventories are already low.

The market can normally absorb an individual refinery outage if alternative production or inventories are available.

The problem becomes more serious when the available replacement capacity is limited.

This is why petroleum buyers monitor not only whether a refinery is operating, but also:

• expected maintenance duration;
• crude throughput;
• jet-fuel yield;
• export schedules;
• storage levels;
• competing domestic demand; and
• alternative regional supply.

The question is not simply:

Is the refinery producing?

It is:

How much exportable Jet A-1 can realistically reach the market during the required window?

How imports replace lost Jet A-1 production

Import markets are an important buffer when domestic or regional refinery production is insufficient.

Suppose a region consumes more Jet A-1 than its refineries produce.

The difference has to come from imports.

If one traditional supplier becomes unavailable, buyers and traders can attempt to replace those volumes from another origin.

That process is often described as supply substitution.

The 2026 market provides a useful example. After disruption to Middle Eastern aviation-fuel flows, refiners in the United States and Europe increased production, while West African exports increased as Nigeria became a more important source of aviation fuel.

This kind of substitution can prevent a regional supply disruption from becoming a larger physical shortage.

But substitution has limits.

Alternative supply may have:

• longer voyage distances;
• higher freight;
• different loading windows;
• limited available cargoes;
• different terminal requirements;
• greater competition from other buyers;
• specification considerations; or
• insufficient volume.

Therefore, alternative supply does not mean unlimited supply.

It means the market has another source that can potentially replace the missing barrels.

Why Europe is particularly sensitive to Jet A-1 supply disruptions

Europe is a useful example of an import-dependent aviation-fuel market.

The European Commission has stated that EU refineries cover approximately 70% of EU jet-fuel consumption, leaving the remainder dependent on imports.

That means Europe does not need to lose all domestic production to experience supply pressure.

A disruption affecting imported Jet A-1 can create a gap between regional consumption and available refinery output.

That gap can be filled through:

• increased European refinery yields;
• imports from the United States;
• West African supply;
• Mediterranean suppliers;
• other international origins; or
• inventory drawdowns.

But every replacement source has a physical delivery time and a cost.

This is why the search term jet fuel shortage Europe represents more than a news query.

It reflects a deeper supply question:

How quickly can Europe replace lost aviation-fuel imports if traditional supply routes become constrained?

What the UK example tells us about supply resilience

The UK demonstrates another important principle.

A market can be exposed to a supply disruption without experiencing an immediate physical shortage.

UK authorities have stated that airlines purchase jet fuel in advance and that airports maintain stocks to support supply resilience.

This means inventory and procurement planning can absorb a disruption before passengers or aircraft operators experience a physical shortage.

The lesson is important:

Supply security is partly a function of timing.

If a buyer has adequate inventory and replacement cargoes are already being arranged, a disruption may have little immediate operational impact.

If inventories are low when a disruption occurs, the same external event can produce a much more serious problem.

Why storage is one of the most important parts of the supply chain

Storage provides time.

That is its most important function during a supply disruption.

If an airport or regional terminal holds adequate Jet A-1 inventory, it may continue operating while:

• a refinery returns to service;
• a vessel arrives;
• replacement imports are arranged;
• a pipeline problem is repaired; or
• another supplier delivers replacement volumes.

Without adequate storage, the market has less time to respond.

This creates an important distinction between supply availability and inventory availability.

A refinery may be producing Jet A-1 somewhere in the world.

A cargo may even be available for purchase.

But if the cargo cannot arrive before local stocks fall below operational requirements, the destination can still experience a shortage.

That is why storage capacity and inventory levels are critical indicators for physical buyers.

Storage does not eliminate supply risk

Storage is a buffer, not a permanent solution.

Inventory can only cover demand for a finite period.

If daily consumption is high and replacement supply is delayed, stocks eventually decline.

The market therefore has to monitor:

Opening inventory + incoming supply − consumption = closing inventory

When incoming supply consistently falls below consumption, inventory begins to decline.

If the decline continues long enough, the market moves from comfortable supply to tighter availability.

This is why a refinery disruption can initially have little visible effect and then become increasingly serious several weeks later.

The physical market often experiences a time lag between the original disruption and the point at which buyers begin feeling the shortage.

How terminals can create regional Jet A-1 shortages

A terminal is another potential bottleneck.

Even when Jet A-1 is available at the refinery, the receiving market needs sufficient infrastructure to handle it.

Constraints can arise from:

• berth availability;
• tank capacity;
• pipeline throughput;
• truck loading capacity;
• customs procedures;
• quality-control procedures;
• scheduling;
• congestion; or
• limited access to shared infrastructure.

This means a buyer cannot evaluate supply purely by asking:

Is Jet A-1 available?

The better question is:

Is Jet A-1 available at a terminal capable of receiving and delivering the required volume within the required timeframe?

This distinction becomes particularly important for large cargoes.

A 30,000-tonne or larger cargo requires appropriate receiving infrastructure, storage capacity and discharge planning.

A market may have sufficient aggregate demand and supply while still experiencing a temporary logistical bottleneck.

How shipping disruptions affect Jet A-1 availability

International aviation-fuel markets depend heavily on maritime trade.

When Jet A-1 moves between regions by tanker, the supply chain becomes exposed to:

• shipping-route disruption;
• vessel availability;
• freight rates;
• port congestion;
• weather;
• geopolitical risk;
• insurance;
• loading delays; and
• discharge restrictions.

A disruption to a major shipping route can therefore have an effect beyond the physical volume of oil that is directly lost. Longer voyage times can increase freight costs, while alternative origins may become more competitive as buyers look for replacement cargoes. At the same time, routing constraints and limited vessel availability can delay those replacement shipments, tightening regional Jet A-1 supply even when sufficient fuel exists elsewhere.

And it can delay replacement cargoes.

This is one reason why a regional shortage can develop even when global production has not fallen by the same amount.

The product may exist.

The problem is getting it to the buyer.

Why shipping distance matters

Suppose a buyer normally sources Jet A-1 from a nearby producing region.

A disruption forces that buyer to source from a more distant origin.

The replacement cargo now has:

• a longer voyage;
• potentially higher freight;
• greater exposure to delays;
• different loading schedules; and
• a later arrival date.

The replacement supply may therefore be technically available but commercially less attractive.

This is one of the mechanisms through which a physical disruption becomes a price and procurement problem.

How Jet A-1 shortages affect prices

Jet A-1 pricing is influenced by more than crude oil.

The physical market also reflects:

• refinery margins;
• jet-fuel crack spreads;
• regional inventories;
• import requirements;
• export availability;
• freight;
• storage;
• terminal costs;
• taxes and duties;
• specification;
• cargo size; and
• delivery timing.

When supply becomes tighter, refiners and traders may face stronger product margins.

IATA reported that the jet-fuel crack spread reached historically high levels during the 2026 energy shock, while jet fuel became a significantly larger share of airline operating costs.

For a physical buyer, however, a benchmark price is only the starting point.

The commercially relevant number is the cost of obtaining the required Jet A-1 at the required location and time.

That can differ materially between an FOB cargo and a delivered CIF requirement.

Why a global shortage can become a local shortage

This is one of the most important concepts for understanding aviation-fuel markets.

Imagine the global market has enough Jet A-1.

But a particular region loses:

• one refinery;
• several import cargoes;
• part of its storage inventory; and
• a major shipping route.

At the same time, regional aviation demand remains strong.

The global market may still have sufficient fuel.

The local market may not.

That is a regional supply imbalance.

It is why the phrase jet fuel shortages can be misleading if it is interpreted as a single worldwide physical condition.

For buyers, the relevant supply balance is usually much narrower:

Required specification + required quantity + required destination + required delivery window.

When does supply tightness become a procurement problem?

The transition from market information to procurement usually occurs when the buyer has a defined requirement.

For example:

“I need Jet A-1.”

is an initial inquiry.

But:

“I need 20,000 MT of Jet A-1, CIF to a specified destination, with delivery required during a specific month.”

is a procurement requirement.

The second inquiry contains the information necessary to evaluate logistics, possible origins, delivery timing and commercial structure.

This is where monitoring the broader market becomes useful.

If refinery output is declining, inventories are tightening, imports are falling and shipping routes are becoming less reliable, a buyer with a future requirement should not wait until the final available cargo has already been committed.

Early market engagement can provide more time to evaluate alternative origins and delivery structures.

What should a Jet A-1 buyer specify?

A serious Jet A-1 requirement should normally identify:

Product and specification

State that the requirement is for Jet A-1 and identify the applicable specification or quality requirements.

Quantity

Specify the required volume and unit, such as metric tonnes.

Destination

Provide the country and, where possible, the receiving airport, port or terminal.

Delivery basis

Specify whether the requirement is FOB, CIF or another agreed basis.

Timeframe

Identify whether the requirement is:

• spot;
• a specific month;
• monthly;
• quarterly; or
• longer-term.

Frequency

For recurring requirements, state expected monthly or contractual volume.

Preferred origin

If the buyer has a preferred refinery, country, port or trading hub, that information can help narrow the supply search.

Storage requirement

If storage is required before final delivery, identify this early.

Storage can affect the feasible logistics chain and overall delivered economics.

Commercial and documentation requirements

Buyers should also identify material requirements concerning inspection, documentation, payment structure or other transaction conditions.

The more precise the requirement, the easier it is to evaluate as a genuine procurement inquiry.

When should a buyer start looking for alternative Jet A-1 supply?

There is no universal inventory threshold that applies to every market.

The appropriate timing depends on:

• consumption rate;
• available stocks;
• replenishment lead time;
• alternative origins;
• shipping distance;
• terminal capacity;
• seasonal demand;
• refinery maintenance;
• local infrastructure; and
• contractual commitments.

The practical principle is simple:

The less flexible the supply chain, the earlier the buyer should evaluate alternatives.

A buyer dependent on one refinery, one terminal, one pipeline or one shipping route has less resilience than a buyer with multiple supply pathways.

This does not mean buying unnecessary inventory.

It means understanding the replacement options before the market becomes urgent.

What the current Jet A-1 market teaches buyers

The 2026 market has demonstrated that aviation-fuel resilience is not determined by refinery production alone.

A disruption can begin at a refinery or export terminal.

It can then move through international trade.

Shipping constraints can delay replacement cargoes.

Storage can absorb the initial shock.

If inventories continue falling, regional availability becomes tighter.

Prices can then respond through stronger product margins, freight costs and competition for replacement cargoes.

Eventually, a market problem becomes a procurement problem.

The sequence can be summarized as:

Refinery disruption

↓

Lower export availability

↓

Reduced imports

↓

Inventory drawdown

↓

Terminal or shipping pressure

↓

Regional supply tightness

↓

Higher procurement risk

The speed of that process depends on how much spare capacity and inventory exist at each stage.

Request Jet A-1 availability

For organizations with an actual Jet A-1 requirement, the relevant question is no longer simply whether the global market is experiencing a shortage.

The practical question is whether supply can be evaluated for the required:

• specification;
• quantity;
• destination;
• delivery basis;
• loading location; and
• timeframe.

Global Petroleum Advisors provides a procurement pathway for organizations evaluating Jet A-1 supply requirements.

Request Jet A-1 Availability

A specific requirement gives the supply side the information needed to assess the commercial and logistical parameters rather than treating the inquiry as a generic request for a Jet A-1 price.

The key lesson

Jet A-1 shortages do not usually appear overnight.

They develop when multiple parts of the supply chain lose flexibility.

A refinery outage can reduce production.

A trade disruption can reduce imports.

Storage can absorb the initial loss.

Shipping can determine how quickly replacement supply arrives.

Terminal capacity can determine whether that supply can actually enter the market.

And regional demand ultimately determines how quickly available inventories are consumed.

This is why monitoring refinery output, imports, inventories, storage, shipping and regional demand together provides a much better picture of Jet A-1 availability than following a single shortage headline.

For buyers, the objective is not simply to determine whether Jet A-1 exists somewhere in the global market.

It is to determine whether the required fuel can reach the required destination, in the required specification and quantity, within a commercially workable delivery window.

That is where market intelligence becomes procurement intelligence.